Report: EU-27 F-gas emissions to increase by 25% by 2030

The ‘Potentials and costs for mitigation of non-CO₂ greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union until 2030’ interim report, prepared for the European Commission Directorate General Climate Action by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), presents estimates of baseline emissions and mitigation cost curves for non-CO₂ greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) in the 27 countries of the European Union (EU-27).

Increased F-gas emissions in EU-27 despite the implementation of EU initiatives to curtail them

The combined effect of increased demand for refrigeration and air conditioning, replacement of CFCs with HFCs following the Montreal Protocol, will surpass the effect of successful implementation of mitigation measures in accordance with the F-gas Directive and the Mobile Air Conditioning (MAC) Directive, the latter stipulating the replacement of HFC-134a with a cooling agent with global warming potential (GWP) lower than 150 in new vehicle models from 2011 onwards. Accordingly, F-gas emissions in EU-27 are expected to increase by 10% until 2020 and by 25% until 2030.

More specifically, the authors expect:

• overall, F-gas emissions in EU-27 to increase by 10% until 2020 and by 25% until 2030;
• an increase in demand for refrigeration coupled with the phase-out of CFCs in the industrial and commercial sectors to lead to higher emissions of 20 Mt CO₂eq;
• the increased demand for stationary air conditioning to lead to higher emissions of 6 Mt CO₂eq;
• the EU-wide replacement of HFC-134a in mobile air conditioners in all new vehicles from 2011 onwards to reduce emissions by 6 Mt CO₂eq;

Predicted HFC emissions by sector

In terms of applications the authors predict:

• Industrial refrigeration: 119% increase in HFC emissions in 2030 compared to 2005 levels
• Commercial refrigeration: 63% increase in HFC emissions in 2030 compared to 2005 levels
• Domestic refrigeration: nearly zero increase in HFC emissions in 2030 compared to 2005 levels
• Transport refrigeration: 25% decrease in HFC emissions in 2030 compared to 2005 levels
• Stationary air-conditioning: 117% increase in HFC emissions in 2030 compared to 2005 levels
• Mobile air-conditioning: 91% decrease in HFC emissions in 2030 compared to 2005 levels
• HCFC22 production: 74% decrease in HFC emissions in 2030 compared to 2005 levels

Overall HFC emissions from these sectors are projected to increase by 21.3 Mt CO₂eq in 2030, an increase of more than 50% from 2005 levels.

Potentials and costs for non-CO₂ GHG mitigation

The authors discuss several mitigation options that if implemented fully would reduce non-CO₂ GHG emissions in sectors not included in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) by 40 and 41%, respectively in 2020 and 2030, below the 2005 emission level.

They assess that at marginal costs below 30 euro/t CO₂eq the mitigation potentials are largest in the energy sector. Potentials for reducing F-gas emissions from cooling and refrigeration come primarily at a marginal cost exceeding 30 Euro/t CO₂eq.

Similar results for the US

The importance of taking action to tap emissions of HFCs has also recently been highlighted in the US. In the first U.S. Climate Action Report to the United Nations since 2007, the US projects national HFC emissions to more than double by 2020. The growth in HFC emissions is driving a large portion of the growth of the US national greenhouse gases that are projected to grow by 4% by 2020.